Business: India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation has shown a decline due to the easing of turmoil in the global economy and falling prices of essential commodities. Retail inflation in October 2025 is expected to be in the range of 0.4 percent to 0.6 percent. Bank of Baroda (BoB) has said this in one of its reports. According to the report, inflation has remained soft due to rationalization of GST rates and decline in global commodity prices.

CPI inflation rate was at the lowest level in 8 years in September
India’s overall CPI inflation rate stood at 1.54 percent in September 2025 and is an 8-year low. This is less than 2.07 percent in August 2025. The main reason for this decline in inflation was the decline in food items. This was the lowest annual inflation rate since June 2017.

According to the BoB Essential Commodities Index (BoB ECI), prices of major commodities remained in a tight range for the sixth consecutive month in October 2025. , the index declined 3.6 percent year-on-year, its steepest decline since its inception. The declining trend continued in November and by 6 November 2025 the index declined by 3.8 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Sharp fall in prices of tomatoes, onions and potatoes
According to the BOB report, there was a sharp decline in the prices of major vegetables like tomato, onion and potato. Onion prices fell 51.2 percent year-on-year in October and this is the biggest fall since December 2020. Retail prices of tomato and potato showed a decline of 39.9 per cent and 31.3 per cent respectively.

Prices of pulses, especially tur (tur) dal also showed a significant decline. Its prices softened by 29.4 percent on annual basis. This is the biggest fall since January 2018. With softening of international prices, prices of edible oils have also shown signs of decline.

On a sequential basis, Bank of Baroda’s ECI declined by 0.1 percent in October. However, potato prices saw a marginal increase compared to the previous month. Its prices showed an increase after two months of decline. Bank of Baroda said that the continuous decline in prices of essential commodities is a sign that inflation remains under control. However, there is a possibility of a slight increase in CPI in the coming months.