Business: India should adopt a cautious strategy in the ongoing bilateral trade talks with the US to protect its trade interests. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has suggested this. It suggests a three-phase plan, saying India should first stop importing oil from sanctioned Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil to avoid the risk of secondary sanctions.

India can negotiate trade only after reducing tariffs
According to GTRI, once these imports stop completely, India should put pressure on the US to withdraw the punitive 25 percent Russian oil tariff imposed on Indian exports. It says trade negotiations should be resumed only after tariffs are normalized and that too on fair and balanced terms.

The ban on Russian companies made the situation difficult for India.
India and the US are very close to finalizing the first phase of an ambitious bilateral trade agreement (BTA), government officials said on October 24. However, this progress comes as Washington imposed new sanctions on Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22. It handles about 57 percent of Russia’s total crude oil production.

These sanctions have made the situation difficult for India, as its impact is not limited to trade but can also jeopardize access to financial and digital infrastructure.

37 percent decline in Indian exports due to US tariffs
The effect of American steps is already visible. The total duty rate on Indian goods has reached 50 percent after the 25 percent Russian oil duty imposed on July 31. Due to this, there has been a decline of 37 percent in Indian exports between May and September.

Financial and digital infrastructure may be affected
GTRI has warned that secondary sanctions imposed by the US on Russia could now pose broader threats to India. According to the organization, these restrictions can affect not only trade but also the financial and digital infrastructure. These sanctions could block access to India’s SWIFT payment system, halt dollar-based transactions and disrupt digital services at refineries, ports and banks. According to the report, while tariffs directly hurt exporters, sanctions can paralyze the entire system.

India should aim to bring tariffs down to 15 percent
It also suggested that India should try to achieve the same level as major partners like the EU, i.e. aim to bring the average industrial duty to around 15 per cent and give duty-free access to key sectors like textiles, gems and pharmaceuticals.